The Costly Clipper - Axis - AAR D4 1800 (Final Report)

Previous Series AARs

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Marginal Victory

Anything greater than loss is a success in my book. The Germans faced a superior enemy and held them back valiantly. The Germans won 59-42 VPs, 17 points up. Victory was achieved despite the failure to hold Geilenkirchen and other objectives, not because of it. This final post of The Costly Clipper series will evaluate how my planning assumptions held up during execution of the German defense opposite of the Allies' Operation Clipper. No plan survives first contact with the enemy and the enemy gets a vote!

17 point difference in victory points is just barely within the 15-50 VP range for a marginal victory

Final Situation

While the German salient shrank significantly in width it remained notably deep in American lines. The Germans were ultimately forced out of the core of Geilenkirchen but remained a fighting force as it withdrew to the edge of the city on the D4. AO Links on the west of the Wurm River was anchored on the defense of Tripsrath. German infantry companies operating in the woods around the town were instrumental in finding and fixing the Allies. This allowed my defensive plan to adjust based on timely and accurate current intelligence. AO Rechts was a more active defense. While my counterattacks failed to achieve their initial goals they did block the Allies' attempt at a deep attack and enabled the retaking of Prummern and the denial of Allied advances north towards other objective towns.

Quick note on those rear area attacks that I discussed in AAR D4 0700. These turned out to just be two reconnaissance units and not part of a larger attack as I had feared.

The final German and Allied disposition of forces, D4 1800

AO Rechts, D4 1800

AO Links, 1800 D4

My least favorite Allied units freaking me out on the final day, D4 1800

Reviewing the Original Defensive Concept

Based on the results of the battle and the events that unfolded, I believe that my original operational concept was logically sound. I correctly assumed that I would have to conduct a fighting withdraw as I monitored the enemy status and developed an understanding of their plan. Allowing my units to defend in situ (without orders at the beginning of the game) kept them in their prepared positions longer and made the Allied fight for ground more difficult. Finding and fixing the enemy enabled the whole of the 219th Artillery Regiment to run it's guns until sundown on D1, devastating Allied units as I brought guns to bear on identified positions.

D2 saw the launch of my counterattacks set on pushing back the Allies. I identified Geilenkirchen as decisive terrain but had to use my relief force to attack Allies pushing towards Suggerath. Unit fatigue, Allied armor, and tempo of operations hampered the effectiveness of my moves but also complicated the situation for the Allies.

Early in the game I identified that I was setting conditions for a marginal victory when the Win-Loss gauge was in my favor. I maintained awareness of what objectives I held and that the enemy held to assess late game VP scenarios. This tracking and forward thinking payed off in the end. In the early game my restraint in issuing orders preserved prepared defensive positions and my calculated decisions to conduct shaping vs. decisive attacks allowed me to choose my battles with the superior Allies.

Key Takeaways and Lessons Learned

Commanding AO Links and AO Rechts was like playing two different games at the same time. Combat in AO Links became defined by Allied armor dominance. The German forces had restricted maneuver options which was compounded by anti-armor limitations. These factors drove the forces in this AO to take a mostly static defensive posture. Success was defined by denial and delay, not the recapture of towns south of Tripsrath.

AO Rechts was a much more fluid situation. Terrain in this area supported massed maneuver compared to the forests west of the Wurm River. The 15th Division's drive across the Wurm at Suggerath and into the Allied advance initially achieved disruption and halted the enemy outside of its objective. Ultimately, the counterattack by the 15th and others failed due to fatigue and lack of depth. However, the troops continued to remain mobile and met the enemy mostly at the time and place of their choosing. The attack and eventual capture of Pummern was the most consistent success story. While mistakes were made when launching the assault on the town, I adjusted course and eventually overcame challenges that were often self-inflicted.

AO Links demanded the early acceptance of defense while AO Rechts offered opportunity but punished overreach.

Lessons in Game Mechanics

Here are a few quick thoughts:

Form Up Points (FUP)

Towns that are the objective are rarely safe FUPs under pressure

Fatigue is the hidden killer

Especially for counterattacks or long duration operations

VPs drive operational reality

You do not need to hold everything to win

Withdraw orders (and similar actions) save forces

Disbanding Battle Position (BP)-ACHTECK, Geilenkirche, and the withdraw early on D4 preserved combat power

Armor asymmetry matters more than frontage when maneuver options collapse

I risked width of the defense to counter the armor superiority near Tripsrath

In Closing

Defending against a materially superior attacker requires earlier acceptance of loss and tighter VP discipline. Holding Geilenkirchen too long cost flexibility but the redirection of the 15th Div made up for it. Victory came from knowing what objectives not to save. I made hard choices early based on VP awareness, patience, and discipline. Defensive success was measured in survivability, not ground. I learned a lot from playing, analyzing, and writing about The Costly Clipper. We will be revisiting elements of this AAR series in the future. Thank you for reading and I look forward to engaging with you about how this playthrough unfolded.

The German FLOT (forward line of own troops) as it developed at 1900 18 Nov-21 Nov. The historic FLOT from the evening of 22 Nov is also depicted.

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